Input Uncertainty & Risk Profiles

When modeling new and innovative production scenarios, many decisions are still in flux, and much is still unknown. LineLab embraces this uncertainty and allows users to fully incorporate it into the models - precisely quanitfying the repercussions on any final results. LineLab empowers users to navigate uncertainties, gain valuable insights with limited information, prioritize modeling efforts, and effectively manage risks.

Agile "Coarse to Fine" Approach

LineLab supports a "coarse to fine" approach, where inputs begin with minimum and maximum values and optionally a likely value, to accurately capture the degree of available information at that stage. As more data becomes available, inputs can be progressively refined. Some input uncertainties have a bigger impact than others - LineLab gives a clear picture of how each input and its uncertainty influences the results, and thus helps prioritize and focus on the inputs that matter.

Quantify Risk of Each Input

If an input is specified with uncertainty, LineLab can make use of the resulting sensitivity, i.e. how much the input ends up impacting the bottom line, to calculate the monetary risk (in USD, Euro, GBP, etc.), which the uncertainty around that input presents to the average total unit cost. To visualize this information, LineLab automatically plots an interactive bubble chart. Each of the bubbles goes with a different input. The bubble size corresponds to the monetary, bottom-line risk.

Both sensitivities and uncertainties are unique features of LineLab, and this risk view gets a lot of use as technologies are being de-risked, and to drive a coarse to fine approach: starting early with uncertainty and iterating to add detail in the right places using the risks and sensitivities as feedback. LineLab does this analysis automatically with every solve that involves uncertain inputs. It can then be used to compare risk profiles of process alternatives or design alternatives.

Risk chart

Compare Unit Cost Risk Profiles

Unit Cost Probability Charts provide a differentiated and comprehensive picture of the likely expected cost based on uncertain inputs. By comparing risk profiles for technologies of different maturity, decision-makers gain invaluable insights into the potential outcomes associated with each option. The Unit Cost Probability Charts enable a thorough understanding of the uncertainties involved, allowing businesses to make informed choices that align with their strategic objectives. With the Unit Cost Probability Charts, users can evaluate potential outcomes and understand the distribution of costs based on the uncertainties captured. This information facilitates confident decision-making, even in situations where precise data is scarce.

Cost profile

By quantifying risks and providing insights through the Unit Cost Probability Charts, LineLab facilitates informed resource allocation decisions. Users can identify inputs with higher risks and allocate resources accordingly, ensuring that efforts are focused where they will have the most significant impact. LineLab empowers businesses to optimize resource allocation, resulting in enhanced operational efficiency and risk management.

Effective Risk Management and Transparency

LineLab's Input Uncertainty feature is a powerful tool for effective risk management. By assessing uncertainties, quantifying risks, and providing transparent insights, LineLab enables decision-makers to proactively manage risks. The Unit Cost Probability Charts offer transparency, allowing stakeholders to understand the distribution of costs based on uncertain inputs. This transparency fosters informed discussions, aligns stakeholders, and ensures that risk management strategies are effectively implemented.

By embracing uncertainties and offering powerful capabilities, LineLab empowers users to navigate complex landscapes, gain valuable insights with limited information, prioritize resource allocation, ensure transparency, and effectively manage risks.